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Could Harry Kane become the all-time Premier League top scorer?

Photo: Getty Images

Tottenham Hotspur striker Harry Kane has had a fantastic Premier League season and is on track to win the Golden Boot with one game to play. The Englishman has netted 25 goals and Lewis Addley explores whether or not he could become the all-time leading goalscorer in Premier League history…

Harry Kane’s Premier League goalscoring record currently stands at 49 goals in 85 games, giving him an average of 0.57 goals per game.

Alan Shearer remains the all-time leading goalscorer in Premier League history, scoring 260 over the course of a stellar career with Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United from the 1992/93 season until he retired aged 35 at the end of the 2005/06 season.

Kane is only young but has already been compared to Shearer on several occasions for his direct and attacking play style, so lets have a look at how the two compare by their Premier League statistics respectively.

Kane vs. Shearer

Alan Shearer’s Premier League goalscoring record compared to Harry Kane

As we can see in the table above, the standout comparison to be made is in the form of ‘goals per game’. The two strikers can barely be separated in this respect, with Shearer just edging it by averaging 0.01 more goals per appearance.

So how can we hypothetically test the theory of Kane potentially equalling Shearer’s record at this early stage?

First of all we can minus Kane’s current statistics from his career so far from Shearer’s overall statistics. Using that method allows us to have an idea of what Kane would need to do to equal Shearer over the next decade or so.

Screen Shot 2016-05-13 at 15.21.45

Games and goals remaining for Kane to equal Shearer’s record

As we can see, Kane will hypothetically have 356 Premier League games to score 211 goals if he was to equal Shearer’s tally of 260 league goals. This would require him to increase his goals-per-game output by 0.02.

Harry Kane will be 23 come the start of the next Premier League season. Shearer retired aged 35. This gives another hypothesis to explore. The remaining time Kane has to reach Shearer’s retirement age is 12 years, potentially giving him 12 Premier League seasons to shine in.

A total of 12 more Premier League seasons would allow for a maximum of 456 games. This would allow Kane to miss 100 games across 12 seasons to factor in the likelihood of time spent on the sideline through injury, suspension, illness or any other reason.

We must mention that we are only working with hypothetical statistics here, as Kane could move from the Premier League, play less games because of injuries, or more games by enjoying a longer career than Shearer.

While we aren’t suggesting that Kane is or isn’t going to beat Shearer’s record, the stats we have looked into offer an interesting talking point.

Providing Kane remains fit and able to continue with his current scoring ratio, he does hypothetically stand a very good chance of reaching or even surpassing 260 goals in the Premier League.

Do you think Kane has the potential to become the all-time leading goalscorer in the Premier League? Will Alan Shearer’s record ever be broken?

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About Lewis Addley (592 Articles)
Major League Soccer and Premier League reporter. Sub-editor, writer and Social Media manager for MLSGB. All views are my own.

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