At the tail end of the 2015/16 season we assessed whether or not Harry Kane was on track to become the Premier League’s all-time leading goalscorer. Nine months on and Kane has been in incredible form. He’s the league’s top scorer for the season with 19 and the confidence of the England international is there for all to see.
So how do Kane’s stats compare to the end of last season?
Quite simply, Kane is even better. The 23-year-old goal-machine had a 0.57 goals per game ratio when we last assessed his performance levels and as predicted he is continuing to improve. Kane has now scored 68 goals in his 108 Premier League games, a ratio of 0.62 GPG.
As previously mentioned, Alan Shearer, the current record holder, ended his career with 260 goals in 441 Premier League games. His scoring ratio was 0.58 GPG, which Kane has now surpassed. While it’s obvious Kane’s scoring ratio will change as the games pass, he is on course to better Shearers record.
How long will it take him to break the record?
This is almost an impossible question to answer, however with a slightly different method than we did before we can work it out hypothetically. Kane is 192 goals behind Shearer and has played 333 games less. The goals per game ratio needed to score 192 in 333 games is 0.57 – an output Kane is currently bettering by 0.05.
If Kane were to continue on 0.62 GPG ratio he would score a further 206 goals in those 333 games. This hypothetically means if he played the exact same amount of games as Shearer on his current ratio he would score 274 league goals, breaking the record.
So does he have the games available?
Shearer was 35 when he retired. Kane is now 23 and his birthday always falls between Premier League seasons. With that in mind he has 11 years come the start of next season to reach Shearer’s retirement age, so 11 more seasons including the reminder (11) of this to play. That would offer 418 games plus the 11 from this season, so 427 games.
On his current ratio Kane would need 310 games to score 192, so he has 118 games to make up the difference if he gets injured or has a dry spell.
Will he break the record?
There are no guarantees Kane will break the record, he could leave the Premier League altogether or have his career cut short through any number of reasons. All that can be said is with the stats mentioned Kane is in a strong position and he will be focused nothing but each passing game.