Analysis: How Tottenham’s goal output will be affected following Kane’s injury

Tottenham eased into the FA Cup semi-finals with a 6-o win over Millwall on Sunday but they may have lost Harry Kane for the next few weeks, if not the rest of the season.

The England striker limped off after rolling his ankle in the sixth minute on Sunday and Mauricio Pochettino revealed after the game that it was the same injury as the one that ruled him out for seven weeks back in September.

Kane has been in incredible form in 2017, scoring 14 goals in 13 games in all competitions and picking up February’s Premier League Player of the Month award. He has scored three hat-tricks in that time and is tied with Romelu Lukaku as the league’s top goalscorer on 22.

 

Just last week, we wrote about his incredible form and how he is on track to break Alan Shearer’s incredible Premier League goalscoring record. But that looks to have been put on hold, perhaps for the rest of the season.

Spurs made light work of Millwall after Kane’s departure, with Heung-Min Son scoring his first Spurs hat-trick after filling in for Kane as the lone striker. But that was Millwall who are miles off Spurs, proven by the fact they sit 48 places below them in English football.

Spurs have an FA Cup semi-final to prepare for as well as 11 more crucial Premier League games as they look to secure a Champions League spot for the second-straight season.

Embed from Getty Images

There is no current timescale on Kane’s injury, although he left White Hart Lane on crutches on Sunday evening and some reports suggest his season could be over if the injury is as bad as feared.

Spurs struggled during their ten games without Kane earlier this season, scoring just 13 goals while he was on the sidelines – almost half of which came in a 5-0 EFL Cup win over Gillingham. The evidence below proves just how important his goalscoring is to the side.

2016/17
Games
Win Rate
Goals
Goals Per Game
With Kane
29
59%
63
2.2
Without Kane
12
66%
19
1.6

On top of the ten games he missed through injury, Kane also sat out of two FA Cup games in January as he was rested. Tottenham have actually registered a better win percentage without Kane than with their star attacker this campaign. But it’s worth noting that three of their eight wins without Kane came against Gillingham, Aston Villa and Wycombe.

The more obvious concern is just how much Spurs struggle to score goals without the frontman, averaging 0.6 goals less per game without him.

Embed from Getty Images

Below is a list of games Kane would miss over the next seven weeks, assuming he has picked up the exact same injury as earlier this term:

March 19 – Southampton (H)

April 1 – Burnley (A)

April 5 – Swansea (A)

April 8 – Watford (H)

April 15 – Bournemouth (H)

April 22/23 – Chelsea (N) – FA Cup semi-final

April 30 – Arsenal (H)

The standout fixtures are the two at the end of April – the FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea at Wembley and the final North London Derby at White Hart Lane. The promising thing for Spurs is that those two games are six weeks away, so there is still a chance Kane could recover in time, depending on the severity of his injury.

Heung-Min Son is likely to be the man to fill in for Kane over the next few weeks, although Vincent Janssen offers an alternative option for Pochettino. The Dutchman’s struggles have been well documented over the course of this season but he scored his first goal from open play in a Spurs shirt during the win over Millwall and could now be poised for a regular run in the side.

But regardless of who fills in for Harry Kane, they won’t be able to replicate his tremendous goalscoring form of late. Spurs just have to hope that his absence doesn’t lead to their season unravelling at the most vital stage.

How do you think Tottenham will fare without Harry Kane following his latest injury? 

Advertisements

Could Harry Kane become the all-time Premier League top scorer?

Tottenham Hotspur striker Harry Kane has had a fantastic Premier League season and is on track to win the Golden Boot with one game to play. The Englishman has netted 25 goals and Lewis Addley explores whether or not he could become the all-time leading goalscorer in Premier League history…

Harry Kane’s Premier League goalscoring record currently stands at 49 goals in 85 games, giving him an average of 0.57 goals per game.

Alan Shearer remains the all-time leading goalscorer in Premier League history, scoring 260 over the course of a stellar career with Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United from the 1992/93 season until he retired aged 35 at the end of the 2005/06 season.

Kane is only young but has already been compared to Shearer on several occasions for his direct and attacking play style, so lets have a look at how the two compare by their Premier League statistics respectively.

Kane vs. Shearer

Alan Shearer’s Premier League goalscoring record compared to Harry Kane

As we can see in the table above, the standout comparison to be made is in the form of ‘goals per game’. The two strikers can barely be separated in this respect, with Shearer just edging it by averaging 0.01 more goals per appearance.

Embed from Getty Images

So how can we hypothetically test the theory of Kane potentially equalling Shearer’s record at this early stage?

First of all we can minus Kane’s current statistics from his career so far from Shearer’s overall statistics. Using that method allows us to have an idea of what Kane would need to do to equal Shearer over the next decade or so.

Screen Shot 2016-05-13 at 15.21.45

Games and goals remaining for Kane to equal Shearer’s record

As we can see, Kane will hypothetically have 356 Premier League games to score 211 goals if he was to equal Shearer’s tally of 260 league goals. This would require him to increase his goals-per-game output by 0.02.

Harry Kane will be 23 come the start of the next Premier League season. Shearer retired aged 35. This gives another hypothesis to explore. The remaining time Kane has to reach Shearer’s retirement age is 12 years, potentially giving him 12 Premier League seasons to shine in.

A total of 12 more Premier League seasons would allow for a maximum of 456 games. This would allow Kane to miss 100 games across 12 seasons to factor in the likelihood of time spent on the sideline through injury, suspension, illness or any other reason.

Embed from Getty Images

We must mention that we are only working with hypothetical statistics here, as Kane could move from the Premier League, play less games because of injuries, or more games by enjoying a longer career than Shearer.

While we aren’t suggesting that Kane is or isn’t going to beat Shearer’s record, the stats we have looked into offer an interesting talking point.

Providing Kane remains fit and able to continue with his current scoring ratio, he does hypothetically stand a very good chance of reaching or even surpassing 260 goals in the Premier League.

Do you think Kane has the potential to become the all-time leading goalscorer in the Premier League? Will Alan Shearer’s record ever be broken?

Premier League Preview and Prediction: Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur

Competition: Premier League – Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Venue: Villa Park – Sunday, March 13 – 16:00 GMT (11:00 ET)

Match Odds: Aston Villa 13/2 – Draw 16/5 – Tottenham 4/9

Match Preview

Premier League strugglers Aston Villa welcome title chasing Tottenham Hotspur to Villa Park on Sunday afternoon in a game between two sides with very different aims.

Villa are on a four game losing streak coming into this one and have been leaking goals in recent games. They lost 4-0 to Manchester City last weekend despite being 0-0 at halftime and looked a depleted side.

Rémi Garde’s side sit bottom of the Premier League. They are nine points away from safety and although relegation is not yet confirmed they’re favourites for the drop.

Embed from Getty Images

Tottenham come into this tie off the back of their 2-2 draw in the North London Derby last weekend – although it was a good point they will rue not taking all three from being in a winning position.

Spurs trail leaders Leicester City by five points but this title race is still wide open. As the season has proved any side is capable of taking points off of one-another so Mauricio Pochettino will be expecting nothing than maximum effort from his players here.

A top four finish is not yet guaranteed for Spurs despite how good of a season they have had. Even though they are pushing hard for their first title since the 1960/61 campaign they must still ensure they are keeping the distance between them and the sides below.

Embed from Getty Images

Team News

Aston Villa have five injury concerns heading into this tie. Libor Kozak, Adama Traore, Jordan Amavi, Carlos Sanchez and Jack Grealish are all expected to be out.

Tottenham have just three injury concerns. Pochettino rested a number of his key players in their Europa League loss midweek but is still expecting to be without Clinton N’Jie and Jan Vertonghen, while Danny Rose is a doubt.

Key Points

Aston Villa’s last five: W/L/L/L/L

Tottenham’s last five: W/W/W/L/D

Key Stat: Aston Villa have conceded 15 goals in their last four games.

Key Player: Harry Kane – The Tottenham goal-machine has netted 17 in the Premier League this season including that stunning effort against Arsenal last weekend, as always we expect him to be key and full of confidence.

Embed from Getty Images

Score Prediction

Aston Villa 0-3 Tottenham Hotspur – Spurs should’t have too much trouble taking all three points here, as last weekend proved it’s a case of getting the first goal against Aston Villa. Hugo Lloris will be desperate to keep a clean sheet and Pochettino’s side have to keep applying the pressure to Leicester so if there is a slip up from the leaders they can capitalise and gain ground.

Stats: Is Harry Kane on track to beat last season’s Premier League goal haul?

Today we explore if Harry Kane is on track to top his Premier League goal tally of 21 from the 2014/15 season in the final nine games of the current campaign… 

Tottenham Hotspur are chasing their first domestic league title since the 1960/61 season. They are currently in second place, five points behind leaders Leicester City. To stand the best chance of winning the title, they will need their key players on form for the remaining nine games of the season.

And one man who will need to carry his side through the final stages is Harry Kane. The English forward has played a pivotal role in a vast amount of games again this season, including his stunning strike in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal last weekend – but is he going to better last season’s tally of 21 Premier League goals in the remaining fixtures?

Embed from Getty Images

Below are his standout offensive statistics from the current Premier League season, compared to his figures from 2014/15 campaign.

 Harry Kane Apps Goals Shot Acc Strike Rate Shots Per Game Minutes Per Goal Mins Played
2015/16 29 17 63% 0.58 4 150 2561
2014/15 34 21 58% 0.61 3.3 123 2582

Table: Harry Kane’s attacking statistics over the last two Premier League seasons (statistics provided by Squawka).

As we can see Kane netted 21 goals in 34 appearances last season, compared to his total of 17 in 29 so far in 2015/16. He has improved his shot accuracy by five percent but his strike rate has marginally dropped.

Kane is averaging four shots per game, which is an increase of 0.7 from the 14/15 campaign but his minutes-per-goal ratio has increased by 27 minutes over the past year, meaning goals are coming less frequently for the 22-year-old Spurs star.

He has played almost the same number of minutes (2561) in his 29 appearances this season compared to 34 appearances (2582) from the 14/15 campaign and will continue to be relied upon through the final stages of the campaign.

Embed from Getty Images

With those statistics in mind, Kane would fail to reach a higher amount of goals by the time he reaches 34 games. He will hypothetically only find the net three times in his next five appearances, based on his current goal output figures.

But it must be noted that, providing Kane stays injury-free until the end of the season, he has nine games left in the Premier League. If he features in all nine – which is more than likely – he will have made four more appearances than in the 14/15 season and would have played in every Premier League game this term.

With the remaining nine outings offering 810 minutes at the very least, Kane’s output of 150 minutes-per-goal would see him find the net at least five more times.

So with that in mind, Kane’s overall tally this season should approach the 22 goal mark, going one better than he manager last year.

Can Harry Kane fire Tottenham to the Premier League title? Will he beat his tally of 21 Premier League goals from last season?

Premier League Preview and Prediction: Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur

Competition: Premier League – Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur 

Venue: Etihad Stadium – Sunday, February 14 – 16:15 GMT (11:15 ET) 

Match Odds: Man City 21/20 – Draw 5/2 – Tottenham 5/2

Match Preview

Manchester City welcome Tottenham Hotspur to the Etihad on Sunday in a game which could have a huge impact on the race for the Premier League title.

City were destroyed 3-1 last weekend by current league leaders Leicester, a result which could be pivotal in the title race, so need to bounce back and go on a winning run with just 13 league games left to play.

They now sit fourth in the league on 47 points, trailing Spurs, who are second on 48 points, so the intensity is raised even higher for a tie which is usually action-packed.

City know they have to win near on every game from here on in – they are more than capable but players need to step up and start showing why they were signed for such hefty transfer fees.

Embed from Getty Images

Tottenham are in the best position to challenge for the title they’ve been in for some time. Their steady form has paid off and they’ve become a real force – the title is not an unrealistic aim.

Mauricio Pochettino’s side come into this one off the back of their hard-earned 1-0 win over Watford last weekend. They showed great resilience and took all three points, something they may not have done in previous seasons.

Squad quality and performance levels as well as player management from Pochettino have been impressive from Spurs and they should surely finish in the top four now. Although they’ll be aiming higher.

Embed from Getty Images

The reverse fixture at White Hart Lane earlier in the season saw Spurs beat City 4-1 in what was a shock result. The Lilywhites will be hoping to cause another major upset to the Citizens here.

Team News

Manchester City’s injury woes continue. Seven first team players look set to miss out as Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony, Kevin DeBruyne, Fabian Delph, Jesus Navas, Bacary Sagna and Eliaquim Mangala are out. Vincent Kompany could return.

Tottenham have just two injury concerns as Jan Vertonghen and Clinton N’Jie are sidelined.

Key Points

Manchester City’s last five: D/W/D/W/L

Tottenham’s last five: L/W/W/W/W

Key Stat: There have been more than two goals scored in ten of Manchester City’s last 11 home games in the Premier League.

Key Player: Sergio Aguero – The Argentine goal-machine has bagged seven in his last six Premier League outings and now has 14 goals in 18 league games this season. He will be expected to provide against a tough Spurs defence he knows how to break down, with ten goals in his last eight against them.

Embed from Getty Images

Score Prediction

Manchester City 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur – Both sides cannot afford to lose this game. The race for the title is so intense and if results go against these sides this weekend they will find themselves with a mountain to climb to win the league. The game should be packed with attacking action. City would probably be the happier of the two sides with the point considering Spurs’ recent form.

2014/15 Premier League Season Review: Tottenham Hotspur

Premier League Final Position: 5th

Review

Tottenham Hotspur finished the 2014/15 season in 5th and once again missed out on Champions League football, but there are plenty of positives for Mauricio Pochettino’s side. They improved on last season’s position of 6th and have a good foundation to build upon. They picked up some great wins in the campaign but also had some low points. It was ultimately their inconsistency and distraction of the Europa League which cost their chances of finishing in the top four.

Embed from Getty Images

Podcast Review

Best Moment

Beating Chelsea 5-3. This is one for the Spurs fans to treasure, beating one of their biggest rivals and the eventual champions. A game where they could have easily crumbled going 1-0 down early on, Pochettino’s side came back in great spirit and showed they have the ability to mix it with whoever comes to White Hart Lane.

Worst Moment

Losing to 3-0 to Manchester United. This result is arguably the killer in their hunt for Champions League football. Conceding three first half goals simply isn’t good enough and again, showed their inconsistency.

Player of the Year

Harry Kane – what can be said about this young man that already hasn’t? Kane has had a superb season and it looks like Spurs have a real talisman for time to come. He became the first Spurs player to hit 30 goals in a season since Gary Lineker in 1992. Finishing as runner-up to Sergio Aguero for the Golden Boot shows what a great season he had and his tally of 21 goals in 34 league games is impressive. With all the great talking points said, Kane must continue to improve next season and prove to any doubters that he can provide on a regular basis.

Biggest Win 

Tottenham Hotspur 4-0 Queens Park Rangers (Aug 24, 2014)

Biggest Defeat

Tottenham Hotspur 0-3 Liverpool (Aug 31, 2014)
Manchester City 4-1 Tottenham Hotspur (Oct 18, 2014)
Chelsea 3-0 Tottenham Hotspur (Dec 3, 2014)
Manchester United 3-0 Tottenham Hotspur (Mar 13, 2015)
Stoke City 3-0 Tottenham Hotspur (May 9, 2015)

What to improve for the 2015 season…

Spurs have to strengthen their squad. They have a number of players who they need to release and bring in some more experienced, high-quality European stars in order to break into the top four. Pochettino needs to ensure his side stop losing games they expect to win, which again comes back to inconsistency. Spurs have to build upon winning big games like the 5-3 against Chelsea and the North-London derby at home in February. Goal difference is a problem for Spurs, scoring just 58 goals and conceding 53 is not good enough. If Pochettino can solidify his defence and keep hold of Hugo Lloris he has a great chance of improving for the second season on the bounce.

Mauricio Pochettino REVEALS worrying news for Spurs fans

Tottenham Hotspur head coach, Mauricio Pochettino, has revealed some worrying news about Harry Kane ahead of next season.

After a fantastic season, which saw Kane pick up PFA Young Player of the Year, the starlet is expected to be selected for this summer’s Euro Under-21 Championship, named tomorrow.

Kane has netted 30 goals in 50 games this season and Pochettino is worried that Kane will be sapped of energy ahead of next season if he plays in this summer’s tournament, reported by the Sun.

“It is not easy but it is not about tiredness, it is about the next campaign. We see Harry as the future, not just for us but or the senior England team.”

Embed from Getty Images

“He is not tired but the problem is if you play a lot of games in the Premier League and in the Europa League over a season, you expend a lot of enegry.”

If picked, Kane could potentially have just five weeks to fit a in a holiday and Spurs pre-season training before the start of the 2015/16 season, if England were to make the final on June 30.

Pochettino has spoken of the importance of the right decision being made regarding Kane’s inclusion in the England squad.

“You can advise him but, in the end, it is the FA’s decision and the player’s too. I am very sure the FA will take the right decision for Harry Kane and all England players.”

Pochettino is worried that his key man will not be fully fit ahead of the new season and he will no doubt play a pivotal role once again for Spurs.

Is Pochettino right to worried? Will Kane play in this summer’s tournament? 

Spurs will not allow another Bale style exit for £45m-rated United target

Tottenham Hotspur are set to reject any attempts Manchester United make to sign their prolific striker, Harry Kane, according to the London Evening Standard.

Kane has impressed this season as he became the first Spurs player to net 30 goals in a campaign since Gary Lineker in 1992.

He picked up the PFA Young Player of the Year award and was a nominee for the senior accolade too, missing out to Chelsea’s Eden Hazard.

United’s reported wish-list of summer targets increases on a daily basis, with Kane one of many forwards they are interested in. With the likes of Edinson Cavani, Karim Benzema and Alexandre Lacazette also being tracked, Kane is in good company after being regarded as one of the top goalscorers in Europe.

Embed from Getty Images

Louis Van Gaal’s revamp of his United side is expected to make this a busy transfer period once again and a goalscorer is at the top of his list, with the injury stricken Robin Van Persie and flop, Radamel Falcao, expected to leave the club this summer.

Youth seems to be a popular option for Van Gaal who is clearly looking to build for the future and the signing of Memphis Depay could spur others to follow.

Kane would be an ideal signing for any English club looking for an out-and-out goalscorer as he fits the quota for regulations to have English players in the squad.

Embed from Getty Images

Spurs will need to break the trend of selling their best assets if they are to keep hold of Kane, with the likes of Gareth Bale, Luka Modric and Dimitar Berbatov all having left the club for big money in the past.

It has been another season of disappointment for Spurs fans after once again missing out on Champions League football and losing the League Cup final too. They will need to keep Kane and bring in some new faces to challenge for the top four next season.

Will Spurs be able to keep hold of Harry Kane? Do they need to avoid continually selling their best players?

Harry Kane becomes third Spurs star in four years to win PFA Young Player of the Year award

Tottenham Hotspur striker Harry Kane has been named as the PFA Young Player of the Year after a sensational season has seen him become one of the most lethal strikers in the Premier League.

Kane has scored an incredible 30 goals in all competitions this season, with 20 of those coming in the Premier League in 30 appearances.

The young Spurs star becomes the third Tottenham player to scoop the prestigious PFA Young Player award in the past four seasons, following Kyle Walker in 2012 and Gareth Bale in 2013, with Glenn Hoddle the only other Lilywhite to pick up the award back in 1980.

Embed from Getty Images

Chelsea’s Eden Hazard, who picked up the PFA Player of the Year award on Sunday, was named as the best young player last season and other notable winners include Ryan Giggs, Steven Gerrard, Wayne Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo and Cesc Fabregas so Kane is in good company.

The 21-year-old Englishman was rewarded for his fine displays in a Spurs shirt by earning a first senior England call up in March, scoring on his debut against Lithuania, and has looked unplayable at times this year.

Mauricio Pochettino has helped Kane develop into a top class forward and the striker hopes that his successes this season can be replicated in the coming years.

Embed from Getty Images

“It is amazing. It is a very proud moment for myself and my family – hopefully the first of many to come,” he said after picking up the award.

“I have got to keep working hard, but to be recognised by your fellow players is something special and it is a night I won’t forget. It is incredible, an incredible feeling.”

Kane was also named in the PFA Team of the Year, and was runner up behind Hazard for the PFA Player of the Year award, summing up what has been an incredible season for the young Spurs hero.

Did Harry Kane deserve to be named as the PFA Young Player of the Year? How important is he for Spurs?

‘Kane is worth £100m and will leave Spurs’ claims former England striker

Former England striker Rodney Marsh believes Tottenham star Harry Kane is worth a huge £100 million and is adamant that he will leave the club this summer.

Speaking to talkSPORT, Marsh claimed: “I have said it before – I think Kane will leave Tottenham.”

“I could be wrong and he might stay, but it’s my opinion. I reckon he’d be worth £100 million, I really do. If I was a chairman of a club I’d pay it.”

Kane has been the Premier League‘s standout talent this season after bursting onto the scene with Spurs under Mauricio Pochettino and was rewarded for his efforts with an England call-up earlier this month.

He scored a dream debut goal for the Three Lions in last week’s 4-0 win against Lithuania after being on the pitch for just 79 seconds, and is clearly a player that top clubs around Europe will be watching.

Embed from Getty Images

Whether he is worth £100 million is questionable though. Market prices do rise with each passing transfer window but Kane has yet to prove his consistency over more than one season.

He signed a new five-and-a-half-year contract with Spurs a couple of months ago and doesn’t look likely to be leaving, though an offer of £100 million would make the club think twice.

Is Harry Kane worth £100 million? Will he leave Spurs this summer?